How Drought Helped Jimmy Carter (Nearly) Win South Dakota in 1976

abstract:Since 1900 only two Democratic presidential candidates have ever won the popular vote in South Dakota: Franklin Roosevelt (1932 and 1936) and Lyndon Johnson (1964). In 1976 Democratic candidate Jimmy Carter won 49.2% of South Dakota’s popular vote, posting what is still to this date the best showing of a Democratic presidential candidate in the state since Johnson. Carter enjoyed higher support among rural South Dakotan voters than did incumbent President Gerald Ford and would have won the state if high urban voter turnout had not favored Ford. Although Ford had numerous disadvantages going into the election, including the fallout from Watergate and contentious agricultural policies, here we show by comparing county-level voting results with precipitation records that the anomalously high support for Carter among rural South Dakotans was likely associated with the socioeconomic consequences of an unusually severe drought that hit the state in the spring and summer of 1976.