TRENDS OF SOUR CHERRY LATE FROST DAMAGE PROBABILITY IN THE LAST 25 YEARS IN ROMANIA

A patented warning method for late-frost damage in orchards based on phenoclimatic simulation was used to analyze the late-frost damage probability (LFDP) trends for sour cherry in Romania for the decades of 2013-2022 and 2000-2009. Areas with the lowest LFDP were identified in the south, and southeast, as well as in narrow north-eastern and western sectors (p≤16%, i.e. damage may occur less than once every seven years). Above 30% LFDP was found in the west (Lipovei Hills), the north of the Western Plain and Transylvanian Depression, the south of Western Carpathians, Getic and Curburii Sub-Carpathians, and especially in areas located in the south-eastern part of the Transylvanian Depression, with an LFDP>40% (damage more frequently than once every 2.5 years). Compared to the decade 2000-2009, no changes in LFDP were observed in the Getic Plateau, the west of the Romanian plain, and southeast of the Dobrogea Plateau. Areas with the most unfavorable evolution were located in the eastern part of the Transylvanian Depression (where LFDP increased by 10-12%) and the east of the Moldavian Plateau (LFDP of 9-10%). The study warns of the danger represented by the increase of the frequency and intensity of the damages caused by the late frosts under the conditions of the climatic changes of the last 25 years.