Risk typology: differentiating between patterns of non-criminogenic needs and criminogenic risk for African American girls

Abstract Black girls are disproportionately represented in the juvenile justice system, yet standard risk assessments seldom capture the intersecting effects of race, gender, trauma, and structural disadvantage. This study tests whether cumulative scores from the Ohio Youth Assessment System Disposition Tool accurately reflect the needs of justice-involved Black girls. Using data from 485 youth, a two-step cluster analysis identified four distinct risk typologies, from low-risk net widening to high-risk profiles shaped by family instability, school exclusion, peer exposure, and behavioral health needs. Cluster membership significantly predicted recidivism and, in some cases, performed better than cumulative scores. Findings highlight the need for culturally responsive assessment practices, targeted intervention dosage, and coordinated multisystem supports to improve equity and outcomes.