China’s diplomacy in Central Asia: the logic of internal politics coupled with the logic of great power competition

This paper examines the evolving nature of China’s engagement in Central Asia, which in the 1990s was based on a narrow focus of border stabilization and anti-separatist diplomacy, has significantly expanded and integrated since the 2010s into a comprehensive strategy that includes robust security cooperation, deep economic integration, and more proactive political engagement. This evolution is not attributed to a singular cause but rather to a confluence of domestic and international factors. This paper asserts that existing domestic factors (particularly Beijing’s security concerns regarding Xinjiang) were dramatically accelerated and fused by a new strategic driver: the “Belt and Road” Initiative (BRI) launched in 2013. Externally, the “Color Revolutions” that Beijing is wary of, and the intensifying strategic competition between the US and China, provide a strong geopolitical rationale for strengthening this engagement. This study analyzes official Chinese policy documents and academic discourse within China to elucidate the interplay between these internal political logics and the dynamics of great power conflict. While China’s influence in Central Asia has demonstrably grown, this paper contends that its capacity to unilaterally dictate regional order remains constrained by Russia’s enduring presence and the Central Asian states’ pursuit of diversified foreign policies to safeguard their autonomy. The findings suggest a complex regional dynamic characterized by Sino-Russian strategic Cautious Co-existence and Central Asian efforts to navigate an increasingly multipolar environment.