Three Lines, One Clock: Deadline-Driven Predictive Auditing to Mitigate Late-Payment Risk

Internal audit is increasingly expected to move from a retrospective “after the fact” stance to a proactive, risk-mitigating role. We introduce a predictive process-monitoring approach that lets internal auditors forecast late-payment risk while preserving the role separation mandated by the Three Lines Model. Using the 2018 BPI Challenge event log and a synthetic corporate invoice log, we (1) transform traces into deadline-centered, time-bucketed prefixes; (2) compare five classifiers; and (3) embed the resulting accuracy-timeliness profiles in a four-phase decision framework that aligns intervention timing with organizational context and governance guard rails. The study contributes by showing (1) a concrete use case for predictive monitoring, (2) statistical evidence clarifying the accuracy-timeliness tradeoff for audit use cases, and (3) a reusable, governance-anchored decision framework. Data Availability: Supplemental material and source code data are available at in PredictiveMonitoringForAudit-main.zip. JEL Classifications: C53; C88; M42; O33.