Decoupling growth from carbon: analysis of CO 2 emissions and economic change in Uzbekistan (1990–2023)

This study analyzes Uzbekistan’s emissions–growth relationship from 1990 to 2023 using long-term data on GDP, CO2 emissions, and fuel composition. A multi-indicator approach, combining elasticity, intensity, and structural trend analysis, assesses whether observed efficiency gains derive from structural economic change or intentional climate policy. Results show consistent relative, and occasional near-absolute, decoupling driven primarily by modernization, fossil-to-fossil substitution, and gradual sectoral shifts rather than deliberate mitigation measures. These patterns illustrate a form of “passive decarbonization,” where institutional and infrastructural evolution yields lower carbon intensity under weak policy conditions. This article distinguishes this from an emerging phase of “developmental decarbonization” associated with recent renewable and nuclear initiatives. Uzbekistan’s experience illustrates how material conditions and geopolitical factors influence low-carbon transitions in semi-peripheral economies, offering valuable insights for analyzing similar energy transitions in Eurasia and the Global South.