An Integrated Approach for Generating Reduced Order Models of the Effective Thermal Conductivity of Nuclear Fuels

Accurate prediction of the effective thermal conductivity (ETC) of nuclear fuels is essential for optimizing fuel performance and ensuring reactor safety. However, the experimental determination of ETC is often limited by cost and complexity, while high-fidelity simulations are computationally intensive. This study presents a novel hybrid framework that integrates experimental data, validated mesoscale finite element simulations, and machine-learning (ML) models to efficiently and accurately estimate ETC for advanced uranium-based nuclear fuels. The framework was demonstrated on three fuel systems: UO2-BeO composites, UO2-Mo composites, and U-10Zr metallic alloys. Mesoscale simulations incorporating microstructural features and interfacial thermal resistance were validated against experimental data, producing synthetic datasets for training and testing ML algorithms. Among the three regression methods evaluated, namely Bayesian Ridge, Random Forest, and Multi-Polynomial Regression, the latter showed the highest accuracy, with prediction errors below 10% across all fuel types. The selected multi-polynomial model was subsequently used to predict ETC over extended temperature and composition ranges, offering high computational efficiency and analytical convenience. The results closely matched those from the validated simulations, confirming the robustness of the model. This integrated approach not only reduces reliance on costly experiments and long simulation times but also provides an analytical form suitable for embedding in engineering-scale fuel performance codes. The framework represents a scalable and generalizable tool for thermal property prediction in nuclear materials.