Compounded effects of long-term warming and the exceptional 2023 marine heatwave on North Atlantic coccolithophore bloom dynamics

Abstract. The North Atlantic is undergoing rapid ecological evolution under the influence of both long-term warming and the increasing frequency of marine heatwaves. In 2023, the North Atlantic experienced record-breaking sea surface temperature anomalies, exceeding +5 °C regionally and lasting several months. Using 25 years of satellite-derived particulate inorganic carbon data (1998–2023), we assess the response of coccolithophore blooms across two biogeographical boundaries: the Celtic Sea and the Barents Sea. We show that the 2023 marine heatwave led to reduced bloom intensity and fragmentation in the Celtic Sea, while leading to record-high intensity and extent in the Barents Sea. These contrasting responses are modulated by long-term sea surface temperature trends, upper-ocean stratification, and polar front shifts. Our findings suggest a spatial shift of coccolithophore blooms with potential implications for the carbon cycle under long-term warming and stratification.