Bargaining without guns: Military leaders going public

Abstract Under what conditions do militaries go public, and how do they do so? The military can act as a political actor, pursuing its institutional interests and mobilizing support from its own constituency. Civil–military relations scholarship has traditionally emphasized coups as the central form of military intervention in politics. As coups became less frequent after the Cold War, however, scholars have increasingly turned attention to the alternative ways militaries influence politics short of seizing power. This study argues that going public offers the military an alternative channel to advance its bureaucratic interests and shape politics at a lower cost than overt intervention. Using a novel dataset of public statements by top military leaders, this research shows that militaries are more likely to go public during periods of political uncertainty or agenda mismatch, conditional on the social ties they can leverage.