Urbanization Pattern and Multilevel Regional Inequality in National Capital Region (NCR), India: Evidence From Nighttime Light Observations

Increasing regional inequality due to rapid urbanization is a major developmental concern. The paucity of economic data at multilevel and multitemporal scales limits the regular monitoring of the regional inequalities. This study aims to investigate emerging regional inequalities in multilevel administration in the National Capital Region (NCR) of India from 2000 to 2020. The study used nighttime light (NTL), Landsat images, LandScan population density, the Census of India, and OpenStreetMap data. Methodologically, the study employed multiple NTL-based metrics: total nighttime light, normalized lit area, speed of change of lit area, 3D largest patch index, pixel-based time series trends, multilevel univariate and bivariate Gini, Lorenz curve, and random forest-based SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The results indicate a post-2012 drop in NTL intensity in Delhi, linked to decline in population growth and decentralization policy priorities. In contrast, steady NTL growth was recorded in Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, especially in satellite towns such as Gurgaon, Noida, Faridabad, and Ghaziabad. The Gini coefficient and Lorenz curve reveal that whereas inequality in Delhi has declined, it has grown in the surrounding states. Exclusionary and neoliberal forms of urbanization predominate in high-growth zones, whereas in-situ processes characterize scattered, market-driven settlements. Significant NTL gains along highways and industrial zones reflect infrastructure- and capital-driven development, resonating with the promoted inequality. However, the spatial diffusion of urban growth remains limited, and the persistence of monocentric tendencies is evident. The SHAP revealed diverse influential factors responsible for the regional inequalities in the NCR. The study’s findings can also contribute to United National Sustainable Development Goal 10 (i.e., reducing inequality) by monitoring the regular pattern and trend of inequality.