Ports, Planes, or Trains: Which Infrastructure Boosts Trade Most in China’s Belt and Road Initiative?

ABSTRACT This study assesses the impact of transportation infrastructure on trade within China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) using a gravity model to analyze export data across maritime, air, and ground sectors from BRI countries. Findings indicate that maritime and air infrastructure significantly enhance export capacities more than ground transportation. The analysis highlights that infrastructure quality in importing countries notably affects export performance, suggesting prioritizing investments in maritime and air transport and recommending targeted infrastructure investments to maximize economic returns. Our results challenge the view of the BRI as a mere debt trap, showcasing its potential for boosting global trade connectivity.