Potential Distributional Changes in a Threatened Wetland Specialist, The Dot-Winged Crake (Laterallus spilopterus)

The Dot-winged Crake (Laterallus spilopterus) is a wetland specialist with a highly restricted range in South America, reliant on environments increasingly threatened by habitat loss, urbanization, and climate change. This study used ecological modeling to analyze its current distribution, project future range shifts under varying climate scenarios, and identify key environmental drivers of habitat suitability. Occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), supplemented by historical synonyms and literature records, underwent rigorous cleaning to remove duplicates, imprecise coordinates, and spatial autocorrelation. Eight bioclimatic variables with low multicollinearity were selected using VIF analysis and incorporated into MAXENT habitat suitability models. Current habitat suitability estimates range between 395,632.5 km2 and 167,502.5 km2. Future projections under climate change scenarios indicate severe range contractions, particularly in southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northern Argentina, with over 50% loss anticipated by 2061–2080 under the most pessimistic scenario. Nonetheless, potential expansions were identified along the Chilean coast, suggesting recent range shifts influenced by changing climatic conditions or previously undetected populations. The findings highlight the Dot-winged Crake's vulnerability to climate change and anthropogenic pressures, with key environmental dependencies including water availability, pluviosity, higher temperatures, and low elevations. Despite existing wetland protections, projected range contractions highlight the urgent need for adaptive conservation strategies. The recent detections in central Chile suggest opportunities to investigate potential range expansions and population dynamics, critical for informed conservation efforts. Collaborative strategies and enhanced ecological understanding are essential to secure the long-term survival of this threatened species.