Examining System-Wide Bike-Share Ridership in Response to Bikeway Expansion: A Trend-Based Analysis

A bike-share system, also referred to as a public bicycle system or bike-sharing scheme, offers bicycles for short-term use, either for free or at a fee, and has become an increasingly vital component of urban transportation networks. To investigate the impact of bike infrastructure, particularly bike lanes and bike paths, on bike-share demand, this study employed an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with exogenous variables in a longitudinal framework. The results revealed that each additional kilometer of bike lane led to an average increase of 24 daily riders per week and 51 daily riders on weekends. This corresponded to an increase of approximately 38 daily riders per week and 82 on weekends for each additional mile of bike lane. Likewise, adding one bike-share station was associated with an increase of 16 daily riders per week and 34 daily riders on weekends. Active stations had a stronger influence on daily ridership during the week, while the built environment as a whole exerted a greater impact on weekend ridership, highlighting the higher demand for bike-sharing on weekends. Among the weather variables analyzed, temperature and wind speed were not found to affect daily average trip counts significantly. However, precipitation exhibited a significant negative effect on ridership, particularly on weekends. These findings provide valuable insights into the temporal and infrastructure-related dynamics of bike-share usage, offering guidance for planning and evaluating future investments in active transportation systems.