Systemic drivers of carbon emissions in farming systems of five EU countries: Pathways for SDG-aligned food security

Agricultural carbon emissions within the European Union present complex systemic challenges requiring integrated approaches that balance environmental objectives with food security imperatives. This study examines systemic drivers of carbon emissions across agricultural value chains in five strategically selected EU countries (France, Hungary, Italy, Poland, and Spain) from 2010 to 2024. Three distinct farming system emission archetypes were identified: (1) intensive processing-dominant systems (Italy generating >8000 kt CO 2 annually, France maintaining 5000–6000 kt CO 2 ), (2) transitional consumption-driven systems (Poland exhibiting ∼7000 kt CO 2 from household consumption, Hungary showing 900 kt CO 2 with transport contributions of 600–900 kt CO 2 ), and (3) Mediterranean bridge systems (Spain demonstrating 5000–7000 kt CO 2 transport variability). Mediation analysis identified agri-food waste disposal and pesticide manufacturing as strong mediators between emissions and economic outcomes (total effects of 21.0 and 15.0 on GDP respectively), while SDG 12.3 emerged as the strongest mediator explaining 21 % of emissions' impact on GDP. Cross-country scenario testing revealed sustainable food production as the most effective universal policy lever (coefficient 0.266), followed by energy efficiency (0.247) and on-farm energy use (0.237), whereas renewable energy exhibited negative coefficients (−0.085) indicating implementation challenges. Country-specific analyses demonstrated varied responsiveness patterns across 10 % and 20 % intervention scenarios, with France's energy efficiency improvements yielding 0.132–0.264 dietary energy units, while Hungary showed stronger responses to agrifood waste disposal interventions (1.8–3.6 dietary energy units per intervention level). The comprehensive framework demonstrates that coordinated SDG-aligned interventions can simultaneously address carbon emission reduction and food security enhancement, though system-specific implementation strategies remain essential across diverse European agricultural contexts. • Three EU farming archetypes shape emissions and outcomes. • SDG 12.3 mediates 21 % of emissions–GDP effects. • France is most sensitive to energy efficiency gains. • Hungary responds most to agrifood waste disposal. • Sustainable production leads (0.266); renewables lag (−0.085).