Urban and Rural BMI Trajectories in Southeastern Ghana: A Space-Time Modeling Perspective on Spatial Autocorrelation

Spatial autocorrelation in model residuals can have a significant impact on the results of spatial or space-time models. This can result in misleading estimates of the influence of different factors, potentially exaggerating or even reversing the perceived effects of these factors. This study also considers the potential implications of the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) in the context of spatial-temporal models. In this case study for southeastern Ghana, we examined whether and how spatial autocorrelation in model residuals might generate bias in regression coefficients when explaining women’s body mass index (BMI) across urban and rural areas. Eigenvector spatial filtering, with various settings of influential zones, was systematically tested in a latent trajectory model to detect the impacts of spatial autocorrelation.