The Long-Term Destabilization of Youth, Scarring Effects, and the Future of the Welfare Regime in Post-Trente Glorieuses France

Welfare Regime in Post-Trente Glorieuses France Louis Chauvel Sciences-Po To be published 2010 in French Politics, Culture & Society The future of youth is old age, and beyond. My aim here is not to forecast the social conditions for entry into the future labor market, in the 2020s say, but rather to analyze the consequences of contemporary problems (the scarcity of jobs, unemployment, the stagnation of wages, and so on) for the life chances of youth. I also analyze the first cohorts of adults socialized in the economic slowdown of the 1970s an d 1980s to understand the long-term consequences of the crise. This essay therefore focuses on the consequences of the (des)integration of youth in France in the context of mass unemployment and déclassement scolaire (over-education and diploma inflation). This Frenc h experience is interesting in itself. When put in comparative international perspective, however, we can see even more clearly the long-term difficulties facing a number of countries: it is not just a matter of the sacrifice of the youth of today; early career probl ems create “scarring effects” in the future and pose risks for the future of welfare regimes. 2