한국의 강력 범죄 발생 추이 및 통제 요인 연구

The increasing trend of the five violent crimes (murder, robbery, rape, violence, theft) in Korea is not independent of social and economic factors. Several social science research have discussed about this issue but most of them do not properly reflect the nature of the time-series data. Based on several time series models, we studied about the endogenous factors (time, seasonal and cycle factors) and exogenous factors (economical, social change and crime control factors) on violent crime occur in Korea. Autocorrelation were also taken into account. Through this study, we want to help to make preventive policy by explaining the cause of violent crime and predicting the future incidence of it.