The Impact of COVID-19

Most charts in this document will be made available in our COVID-19 Tracker, which we intend to update and complete on a regular basis as more data becomes available. We expect to see delinquencies rise substantially over the next months, and as of end of May, the April data indeed shows soaring arrears in several markets.2 We also expect that payment holidays and other types of loan modifications will become increasingly visible in our upcoming LLD, given that clear reporting instructions are now available.3 Starting from a few cases in early February 2020, COVID-19 spread throughout Europe, forcing governments to enact severe social distancing measures. By the end of April, four of the countries with the greatest number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the world were European countries (Spain, Italy, France, UK), with more than 100,000 documented COVID-19 related deaths in total. As the death curves start to flatten (Exhibit 1), the damage to the economy takes centre stage. PLEASE NOTE: The results published in this report were obtained with the data available as of mid-May 2020 and are thus based on an incomplete data set, as some deals had not yet reported relevant data. Our results can thus be affected by outliers. We intend to update these charts as more data becomes available, and the results may change.