Application of Fisher optimal dissection method to flood season division

Flood season division by conventional methods is often realized by qualitative statistical analysis,and the results are of high uncertainty.To overcome the disadvantage,the Fisher optimal dissection method as well as its basic principle and steps was introduced.With Miyun Reservoir in Haihe River Basin taken as an example,5 indexes reflecting the seasonal change of rainstorm and flood of the reservoir region were selected,and the weight coefficients of each index were given based on specialists' judgment.Then,the objective function was derived,and the flood season was divided for the reservoir region.Synthetic analysis and rationality validation show that the method is of multi-factor clustering characteristic,and it can realize time sequence division and confirm the optimal stages,therefore,the method is suitable for quantitative division of flood season.