Crisis simulation scenario building methodology that considers cascading effects

Crisis management is based on knowledge and reflexes that replace the normal functioning of an organization. This implies the need for managers of crisis situations to have gained some experience in a practical or theoretical way. Crisis simulations appear to be a pedagogical solution for this experience gaining. A simulation is supposed to recreate as accurately as possible a realistic situation. To do so, the crisis simulation should be based on the psychological reality illustrated by the characteristics of the situation as well as the characteristics of the crisis managers’ reaction who cope with it. The scenario is an essential part of the simulation, it contributes to enhance some of the previously cited characteristics such as the evolving nature of the problem, the important consequences, the surprise, etc. The scenario is chosen and elaborated as a function of the objectives of the simulation. This study has been undertaken within the framework of the European project CascEff which aimed to better understand cascading effects. Its objective was to develop a methodology that enables the modelling of cascading effects. The validation of such methodology in a context of a crisis situation was an intrinsic part of the development process. The iCrisis simulation approach enables to simulate crisis situations at a strategical level. The scenario is a key element of this approach. Based on classic scenario building methodologies and cascading effects assessment methodologies, this communication proposes a scenario building methodology for the iCrisis simulation approach that considers cascading effects, in order to study this concept and the added value of the developed CascEff methodology for crisis managers.