BusinessEconomics

Jianguo Chen, Ben R. Marshall, J. Zhang, S. Ganesh

2006.6.1Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies

DOI: 10.1142/s0219091506000744

tlooto Summary

Financial ratios (EBITTA, EPS, TDTA, PB, CR) are significant predictors of business failure in China, with prediction accuracy ranging from 78% to 93% using Logit and Neural Network models.

Abstract

We use four alternative prediction models to examine the usefulness of financial ratios in predicting business failure in China. China has unique legislation regarding business failure so it is an interesting laboratory for such a study. Earnings Before Interest and Tax to Total Assets (EBITTA), Earning Per Share (EPS), Total Debt to Total Assets (TDTA), Price to Book (PB), and the Current Ratio (CR), are shown to be significant predictors. Prediction accuracy achieves a range from 78% to 93%. Logit and Neural Network models are shown to be the optimal prediction models.

Citation format

CHEN, Jianguo, et al. Financial distress prediction in China. Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies, 2006, 09: 317–336.