Modeling the technology mix

The electricity industry is now actively considering which combination of advanced technologies can best meet CO{sub 2} emissions reduction targets. The fundamental challenge is to develop a portfolio of options that is technically feasible and can provide affordable electricity to customers. As the US industry considers its investments in research, development and demonstration projects, EPRI's PRISM and MERGE analyses address this challenge and point toward a solution that EPRI describes as 'The Full Portfolio'. The PRISM results show much greater use of nuclear power, renewable energy and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS) towards 2030, and a sharply lower contribution from natural gas and coal without CCS. The MERGE analysis shows that, assuming CCS would not be available, the use of coal would fall off sharply in favour of natural gas and there would be a fall in electricity demand driven by very high prices. With the Full Portfolio, nuclear power and advanced coal generation with CCS reduce emissions to a point where a much lower demand reduction is needed. By 2050 the Full Portfolio will have decarbonized the electricity sector and reduced the impact on electricity prices to below a fifth that of the limited portfolio. 2 figs.