Revisiting the link between electrification and fertility: Evidence from the early 20th-century United States

The decline in fertility occurring throughout the first half of the 20th century in the United States and preceding the baby boom remains largely unexplored. In this paper, I present empirical and theoretical evidence linking this decline to the spread of electricity during this period. First, I use newly digitized data of early electrification efforts in order to empirically disentangle the two theoretically opposing channels driving the link between electrification and fertility: the rise of time-saving appliances that reduce the time needed for child-rearing and encourage fertility, and the rise of female wages, which increase the opportunity cost of childcare and discourage fertility. I then use these empirical estimates to calibrate a model that features both channels, and quantifies the aggregate effect of electrification on fertility. I find that electrification accounts for 4.6% of the aggregate decline in fertility during 1900–1940 in the United States, and that the opportunity cost channel is preponderant in explaining this response whereas the time-savings channel plays a much smaller role. In addition, I find that this decline in fertility primarily affects young women who were not yet burdened with childcare responsibilities, allowing them to benefit more from the labor market gains of electricity. ∗Department of Economics, University of Connecticut (e-mail: daniela.vidart@uconn.edu)