COVID-19 implications for banks: evidence from an emerging economy

The COVID-19 pandemic is damaging economies across the world, including financial markets and institutions in all possible dimensions. For banks in particular, the pandemic generates multifaceted crises, mostly through increases in default rates. This is likely to be worse in developing economies with poor financial market architecture. This paper utilizes Bangladesh as a case study of an emerging economy and examines the possible impacts of the pandemic on the country’s banking sector. Bangladesh’s banking sector already has a high level of non-performing loans (NPLs) and the pandemic is likely to worsen the situation. Using a state-designed stress testing model, the paper estimates the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on three particular dimensions—firm value, capital adequacy, and interest income—under different NPL shock scenarios. Findings suggest that all banks are likely to see a fall in risk-weighted asset values, capital adequacy ratios, and interest income at the individual bank and sectoral levels. However, estimates show that larger banks are relatively more vulnerable. The decline in all three dimensions will increase disproportionately if NPL shocks become larger. Findings further show that a 10% NPL shock could force capital adequacy of all banks to go below the minimum BASEL-III requirement, while a shock of 13% or more could turn it to zero or negative at the sectoral level. Findings call for immediate and innovative policy measures to prevent a large-scale and contagious banking crisis in Bangladesh. The paper offers lessons for other developing and emerging economies similar to Bangladesh.