Psychological biases and heuristics in the context of foresight and scenario processes

The study of cognitive mechanisms involved in human decision-making has been a central research topic for psychologists for the better part of the last century and remains in the research focus to date. In the foresight community, these cognitive mechanisms have also started to receive some attention (Bradfield, 2008; Burrows & Gnad, 2017; Chermack, 2004; Hodgkinson, Brown, Maule, Glaister, & Pearman, 1999; Kahneman, Lovallo, & Sibony, 2011; Schoemaker, 1993; Wack, 1985). The term most often associated with this field of study is “biases and heuristics.” Cognitive biases in general describe systematic errors or deviations from norms or rationality in perception, memory, cognition, and judgment (Haselton, Nettle, & Andrews, 2005). Biases are in substantial parts unconscious and often result from the use of heuristics. The term heuristics describes mental shortcuts or simple rules that enable an individual to engage with its surroundings in an efficient way (Zimmer & Fahrenberg, 2014). But they can also lead to the construction of highly subjective images of those surroundings/reality. Received: 24 September 2019 | Revised: 19 December 2019 | Accepted: 19 December 2019 DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.31