Studies of the strategies for controlling the COVID-19 epidemic in China: Estimation of control efficacy and suggestions for policy makers

Based on the theory of the transmission dynamics and the general SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered/removed) model, using the software EpiSIX (involved with only 10 parameters), we study the COVID-19 epidemic courses in China.By fitting the real-time data of diagnosed cases from December 12, 2019 to our model,we estimate the most important epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 such as the basic reproductive number, the mean latency/infectious period, the proportion of asymptomatic infectives, as well as the ending times, peaks and end sizes of the epidemic courses. From the very early stages of the epidemic courses, we estimate the time-dependent control efficacy and make suggestions for the policy makers. We have established a webpage for updating our predictions.