Understanding climate scientific uncertainty: how undergraduate students’ epistemic views shape climate concern and action

This study investigates how students’ perceptions of scientific uncertainty influence their concern and actions regarding climate change. Using the Uncertainty Intensification Hypothesis, which suggests that uncertainty increases emotional responses; Construal Level Theory, which connects psychological distance to abstract thinking; and the Nature of Science (NOS) framework, which highlights uncertainty as inherent to scientific inquiry, we define climate uncertainty as a multidimensional construct that includes measurement uncertainty, perceived ambiguity, and uncertainty about future impacts. We surveyed 633 Taiwanese undergraduates using a validated instrument that measured three dimensions: climate uncertainty, climate concern, and climate action. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was used to examine the relationships among these variables. Perceived ambiguity and future uncertainty were negatively associated with climate concern, whereas measurement uncertainty was positively associated with concern and, indirectly, with action. These findings indicate that recognising uncertainty as an inherent aspect of science can strengthen climate engagement. Integrating NOS principles into climate education builds epistemic trust and resilience, enabling students to make informed judgments and take responsible action. By empirically demonstrating how different dimensions of scientific uncertainty affect students’ climate concern and action, this study supports the need for NOS-informed climate education that prepares learners for reflective, evidence-based reasoning and responsible engagement.